Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Predictions
Posted by Josh in Barack Obama, Election 2008, Predictions
Time to put my money where my mouth is and publish my election predictions.
Strong turnout will drive Obama to a large margin of victory in Virginia and help him squeak by in North Carolina. I also think Georgia might break his way but that is probably just wishful thinking. Pennsylvania and Ohio will go for Obama but he will lose Indiana by 1-3%.
The media won’t “call” the election until California votes but every pundit will be repeating how McCain has almost no chance of winning and talking about the historic nature of the election. The apparent Obama landslide will drive McCain turnout down in western states as the day progresses. This is why I have Obama winning in Missouri and in Montana. Well, Montana is mostly because Cory would love it.
Senate - Democrats will pick up New Hampshire, Alaska, Oregon, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia and Minnesota for a total of 58 seats.
House - I am not nearly expert enough to call specific house races, but I think somewhere around 28-30 more seats for the Dems, which would be considered a large pickup.
UPDATE: I forgot to say that I want to hear what everyone else’s predictions are. Post them in the comments!
UPDATE 2: The map no correctly reflects my views on Indiana and Colorado. I am the worst blogger ever.
Comments on this post
I’m going to take it a step further. I call this one the “13 Colony Strategy.”
Click here to view electoral map
My congressional predictions are similar, except that I think Jim Martin wins the Georgia Senate seat on Obama’s hilarious, ringleader-esq coattails. And to temper my ambitious predictions, I think Chris Shays keeps his seat as lone New England GOPer.
Posted by Jordan on November 4th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
I am a little more optimistic about Colorado, but I think Missouri will go the other way.
Senate i am predicting 57 D 41 R 2 I after Franken wins in Minnesota and Liddy Dole loses her seat on the heels of an incredibly bad ad
Posted by matt on November 4th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
My predictions are almost identical, except I’m not too confident about Florida. Too many oldsters. I don’t mean to offend anyone’s grandmother, but I just can’t bank on anyone whose main mode of transportation is a golf cart. I also like the chances in Indiana. I think the Dems fall a couple short of the Senate super majority.
Posted by Mike on November 4th, 2008 at 7:24 pm
A couple of things I forgot - I have Montana blue for the same reason - Cory would love it. And I also have to agree - yes you are the worst blogger ever
Prizes for the most accurate prediction?
Posted by Mike on November 4th, 2008 at 7:27 pm
LOLzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz at elections
Utilitarianism 4 life
Vote Big Sach - 2020
ps-who reads this site?
Posted by BSI 12 on November 4th, 2008 at 7:51 pm
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