Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Predictions
Posted by Josh in Barack Obama, Election 2008, Predictions
Time to put my money where my mouth is and publish my election predictions.
Strong turnout will drive Obama to a large margin of victory in Virginia and help him squeak by in North Carolina. I also think Georgia might break his way but that is probably just wishful thinking. Pennsylvania and Ohio will go for Obama but he will lose Indiana by 1-3%.
The media won’t “call” the election until California votes but every pundit will be repeating how McCain has almost no chance of winning and talking about the historic nature of the election. The apparent Obama landslide will drive McCain turnout down in western states as the day progresses. This is why I have Obama winning in Missouri and in Montana. Well, Montana is mostly because Cory would love it.
Senate - Democrats will pick up New Hampshire, Alaska, Oregon, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia and Minnesota for a total of 58 seats.
House - I am not nearly expert enough to call specific house races, but I think somewhere around 28-30 more seats for the Dems, which would be considered a large pickup.
UPDATE: I forgot to say that I want to hear what everyone else’s predictions are. Post them in the comments!
UPDATE 2: The map no correctly reflects my views on Indiana and Colorado. I am the worst blogger ever.